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2022 NBA Playoffs AnalysisWarriors Western Conference Finals

2022 NBA Playoffs Analysis Warriors

Compared with the Suns and Grizzlies, which have always maintained high-intensity, the Warriors have lost a lot of games that should not have been lost this season. The process and results of many games were unsatisfactory, but in any case, the Warriors returned to the playoffs after 2 years, and the record is still 53 wins, third in the Western Conference.

Stephen Curry missed 18 games, Draymond Green missed 37 games, Klay Thompson missed 50 games, Andre Iguodala missed 51 games, the Hampton 4-man team has not played for a second at the same time this season, and Curry+Thompson+Green has only 11 games. Minutes played at the same time. In addition, the Warriors’ lineup this season also includes 2 rookies, 2 new veterans, and 3 unknowns who have struggled in G-League. The second place in last year’s draft was reimbursed for the whole season, but unexpectedly paid Compared with the 48 wins estimated by the media before the start of the season, there are 5 more wins. Although the degree of surprise is not as good as the great leap forward of the Grizzlies, it can overcome difficulties and climb over the dilemma of players’ relay injuries, with 53 wins in a single season. , the Warriors who made it to the playoffs, the third seed in the Western Division, are still quite commendable.

The regular season that keeps falling and getting up

In the first 20 games of the season, the Warriors ranked first in the league with an amazing record of 18 wins and 2 losses, ranked second in the league in offensive efficiency of 113, and ranked first in the league with a defensive school rate of 99.4. The overall efficiency value was as high as +13.6. , far higher than the second-place Jazz’s +9.1; during this period of consecutive wins, the most surprising thing is not the star performance of Curry and Wiggins, nor is it expected to break out of the cocoon, averaging 18.1 points per game Jordan Poole, but there are many fresh faces but can play a tacit understanding of the offensive and defensive system. From the opening game, he showed the passing vision that fits the Warriors system and high-position support Bjelica, to Porter, who contributed steadily in both offensive and defensive stages. And beyond everyone’s expectations, Payton II, who showed the same tough perimeter defense as his father, was the key to a winning streak early in the season.

When the schedule is about to enter December, the Warriors are facing their first monthly test. They have to match the Phoenix Suns, which are close behind, in two consecutive matchups. Although they lost their first game away from Phoenix, they were lucky to return to the Chase Center the next game. To regain a city, although neither side was a complete lineup, the Warriors also showed the ability to adjust on the fly, but after that, Curry’s shooting feel declined like an avalanche. Throughout December, Curry’s scoring average was still 27.6 points, but the shooting percentage dropped to 40.4%, and the three-point shooting percentage dropped to 37.4%, not to mention the mid-range, even the usual ultra-stable Finger roll layup can shoot, except for Curry, as the second ball holder The player’s Poole also fell into the low tide of hitting the wall in early December. In mid-December, the health protocol was triggered and he missed the game for half a month. The downturn and absence of the two-shooter also affected the team’s offensive efficiency. Throughout December, the Warriors team’s offensive efficiency fell to 18th in the league. Fortunately, the defensive end still maintains a standard, ranking 3rd with 104.7, allowing the Warriors to barely achieve 9 wins and 4 losses in December.

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I thought that after breaking the record and becoming the historical three-pointer, Curry, who should be able to get out of the low ebb, encountered the lowest point of his career in January. Point shot rate is only 32.9%.

Curry’s slump, the injury of Draymond Green, the center of offense and defense, and the return of the second-in-command Klay Thompson after two years, all crowded into the first half of January, causing the Warriors to maintain a good rotation lineup in the first half of the season and the offensive and defensive system collapsed instantly. The Warriors were forced to enter the second phase of the run-in period with the absence of the offensive and defensive center Green. This run-in was not as smooth as the beginning of the season, losing successively to the Lone Rangers, Pelicans, Grizzlies, Bucks, Grey Wolves and Pacers. The Suns widened the gap and were caught up by the Grizzlies, who were No. 3 in the Western Division. Fortunately, the Warriors’ schedule was low in late January and early February. In addition, Poole gradually adapted to the offensive mode without Green by his side. Curry also found the reason why his shooting was at a low ebb. Thompson gradually regained his sense of the ball and adapted to the intensity of the game, and changed back to the offensive mode of running C&S more often in the past, and the Warriors quietly pulled out a wave of nine consecutive victories.

The Warriors, who thought they were already on track, were injured, but Iguodala was unable to return, Payton was on the injured list, Wiggins continued to score low points, and the second-team players couldn’t maintain their firepower in the first half of the season. Lee, Porter, Players such as Bjelica can’t even make shots in the outside space. More importantly, the Warriors’ defense can no longer cover the offensive end. It’s not just Green’s absence. It can even be said that the players’ competitive mentality is low. The Clippers without a double star cut in the backcourt, were reversed by the Mavericks in the fourth quarter, were completely blasted by Towns, and scored 56 points by Lebron. In 11 games after their 9-game winning streak, the Warriors lost a full 9 games. During this period, the Warriors’ The defensive rating is 29th in the league at 118.1, which is not at all what a playoff team should do.

Fortunately, during this period, the Warriors did not gain nothing. Thompson has gotten rid of the limitation of playing time, and the double rookie has also gained a lot of performance opportunities. Moody even scored 30 points in the gold nugget game when the main team rested, and the seventh overall pick Kuminga also After Green was injured, he won the favor of the coaching team and became a fixed rotation player, showing what talent is.

The Warriors, who lost 9 games in the past 11 games, unexpectedly regained their offensive and defensive system when facing playoff teams such as Clippers, Gold Nuggets, Bucks, etc., and won a big victory. The victory was won by the combination of the three main players who had been in violation for more than 1,000 days. However, whenever the Warriors train seemed to be returning to the right track, it would be forced to stop. The reason for the suspension this time was that the locomotive Curry was injured, and only 11 minutes of the same game. The three main forces were once again forced to dismantle.

It seems like every time one of us comes back from an injury, another one is injured, and it’s going to cause the team to fail to develop a good rapport, which is very worrying. -Draymond Green

Curry has to rest for a month due to his injury. Fortunately, he will not miss the first round of the series, but he originally wanted to rely on the morale of winning the gold nugget Bucks to take advantage of the victory and go to the away game, but the Warriors without Curry were forced to play other games again Team rotation, unsurprisingly led to an ugly result of 1 win and 6 losses, maybe it was away games, maybe it was mental fatigue at the end of the season, or maybe it was the absence of Soul Curry. The defense was unable to hold the losing streak of the Golden State Army. Until returning to the home court and encountering the imaginary enemy Sun, with a potsticker defeat and a big reversal of the Jazz’s victory, on the eve of the playoffs, the team morale that was nearly extinguished was rescued, and everyone was ready for this season. The warrior who fell and got up, fell and got up, breathed a sigh of relief.

Of course, compared to the Suns and Grizzlies who have always maintained high intensity, the Warriors have lost a lot of games that they should not have lost this season. , which made many game processes and results unsatisfactory, but in any case, the Warriors returned to the playoffs after 2 years, and the record is still 53 wins, the third in the Western Division.

It is an advantage and a disadvantage, an offensive system based on projection

As we all know, the Warriors’ offense this season focuses on the movement and projection of Curry, Thompson and Poole. This is a three-shooter formation that the Warriors did not exist in the past. It is also the first 3-4 games for the Warriors this season before Curry’s injury. The number of samples of the attempted offensive lineup is not large, but at least 129 minutes are the time when they are on the court at the same time, and the offensive efficiency is as high as 121.7, which can prove the feasibility of the three-shooter formation, especially at 3/10 U.S. time to reverse the gold nugget. In the game, the last few attacks of Curry holding the ball and playing Pick&Pop with Thompson and Poole are still fresh in my mind, and after the return of Green, who knows how to match up with shooters best, he must be able to optimize the offense of the three-shooter formation.

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In addition to the 3 main shooters, including Wiggins, OPJ, Bjelica, GP2, Iguodala and other playoff rotation players, it is expected that Curry will have many opportunities in the perimeter after returning to the team. Can he grasp every gap and shoot the ball into the basket stably? Also the key to victory. The Warriors’ offensive system uses a lot of off-ball running and off-ball screening to find a lot of outside shots, or occasional high-level pick-and-rolls, attracting double-teams with the ball handler’s running-and-shooting ability, thereby guiding the pass. Going to the perimeter gap is a common offensive method used by the Warriors, and it is also the main reason why the Warriors can make 39.5 three-pointers per game, ranking third in the league.

As long as this game is played this season, the Warriors’ three-point shooting rate is above 35%, and the winning rate is as high as 80%. If the three-point shooting rate drops below 35%, the winning rate is only 50%, which also means that the Warriors are not only making three-pointers. Apart from ball shooting opportunities, there is no other offensive method that can stabilize and score a lot. Curry and Poole can both attack with the ball, Wiggins can also rely on hardware to cut hard, Thompson and Porter can also shoot from the mid-range, but in fact, apart from Curry’s possession of the ball is only a secondary weapon. It is a different dimension from Kevin Durant who could ignore defense and score a lot during the Cosmic Brave era.

To put it more simply, if the current Warriors cannot shoot correctly in the game, or are locked out of the perimeter by All switch, they can only rely on defense to suppress opponents to score and play defensive counterattacks and fast breaks, thereby dragging the game into the Warriors. Attack rhythm, but if you can’t even play defense, you can only say good game.

As long as you are willing to defend, it will not be too bad defense

Fortunately, Green and Iguodala can return to the team as scheduled before the playoffs. After all, even after three years, they are still the Warriors who can dominate the defense the most, not to mention that this year, there is more GP2, a peripheral player who can stick to the opponent’s ball handler. Lock, although the Warriors’ defense remains second in the league this season, there are still many games where the defense is bad, but what can be said is that most of these games did not have Green and Iguodala present, and since Iguodala was at 3/ After returning to 28 and Green coming out of the pain period when he was unable to defend with all his strength just after recovering from his back injury, the Warriors’ defensive efficiency in the past 6 games ranked first in the league with 105.3. To provide some more data, the Warriors’ defensive rating is 102.9 when Green is on the court and 107.2 off the court. When Iguodala is on the court, the Warriors’ defensive rating is 97 and 107.7 off the court. When GP2 is on the court, the Warriors’ defensive rating is 97. The Warriors’ defensive rating was 102.2 and 106.5 off the court, which shows how important the three of them are on the defensive end.

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According to the rotation time of these few games at the end of the season, Green has no playing time limit. In addition to playing as the starting No. 4, he will also serve as a small-ball center in the closed lineup. He should not have much defensive ability and defensive awareness. Said that Iguodala is the weak side defender of the second team, and the first-line defender will be matched with GP2 or Wiggins, which can be considered to avoid the shortcomings of Iguodala’s old age and unable to keep up with the footsteps of young people. The more problematic defensive breaches should be Yes, Bjelica is the center of the second team. After all, he is not a traditional center, and he has rarely played as a small-ball center. His ability to protect the frame is very average, but at the end of the season, when the manpower is still sufficient, he will be matched with a high-span OPJ. , Although there are problems, they are not big. In the end, it is important to pay attention not to be cut into the penalty area so easily, and to be forced to involve defensive rotation.

Some people may question that whether it is Green, Iguodala or Looney, they all have the defect of being unable to provide perimeter shooting. I don’t think there is any need to worry. From the point of view of the end of the season, the coaching team has tried their best to separate their playing time at the same time. There were three top shooters that could be adjusted in the last playoffs, so it wouldn’t be a problem.

Year-long Kerr scientist lab

For record fans, it is not a good experience to experience Kerr’s experimental game for a whole year, but from another point of view, it is also because of the wave of injured soldiers, which just allows the coaching team to try various rotation lineups and the status of each player. As a result, not only did he find the right offense for Poole at the end of the season, he also tried the viability of a 3-splash shooter lineup, and discovered the value of Payton’s ability to provide both offensive and defensive energy, digging out that Kuminga may be able to play in the playoffs. In the end, it was concluded that Lee and JTA could not be given a heavy responsibility. Although there was still a lack of running-in, it was determined that the best rotation lineup was established.

According to the rotation lineup at the end of the season, it can be divided into the following lineup rotation

out of rotationLee、JTA、Moody
Main closing lineupCurry、Thompson、Wiggins、Green、Poole
Defensive closing lineupCurry、Thompson、Wiggins、Green、GP2/AI
Frame guard lineupCurry、Thompson、Wiggins、Green、Looney
The best overall performanceCurry、Thompson、Wiggins、Green、Porter
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The coaching team headed by Kerr and the lineup with the Hampton 4-person team as the core are also a combination of 105 playoff games for 5 years. Although things have changed, the lineup and age are very different, but the experience and tacit understanding He is still at the top of the league. The dark rules of how to fight against each other in the playoffs and fight against weaknesses are naturally quite clear, and despite Kerr’s many wrong decisions at critical moments this season, his ability to adjust every other game is quite good. of.

Insufficient break-in time and low injury tolerance

As mentioned earlier, the Warriors have been in a cycle of falling and climbing this season. Sadly, it is not until Curry returns in the playoffs that the Warriors will be at their healthiest this season. The three main players can only play this season. 11 minutes, in fact, it is not the three of them who really need to worry, but the main players such as Poole and Wiggins have not yet adapted to how to play around the three main players. This is also the biggest worry after a season of experimentation. The rotation lineup has not really run a few times, and it is more likely to make mistakes without running in. Moreover, the Warriors also ranked second in the league with an average of 14.9 turnovers per game this season. If the turnover problem still cannot be improved in the playoffs, Definitely makes the series harder to play.

In addition to the lack of running-in time, many fans will also question that the Warriors’ penalty area defense is not good enough, but I think the Warriors’ penalty area problem has always been not defense, but health. After all, when Wiseman determined that the Warriors could not return this season, they were destined to be able to play in the playoffs. There is no one else except Looney and Green when the rim protection effect is activated in the penalty area. Although it is said that Looney mainly focuses on false starters, but considering the flexibility of the lineup, his existence is also very important, not to mention Green, who is the center of the closed lineup. Therefore, the two of them are the least injured players besides Curry.

First-Round Series VS Gold Nugget – Match Analysis

Although the Warriors played 4 gold nuggets in the regular season this season and achieved 1 win and 3 losses, the reference value is not high when Green is absent in all 4 games, and one of the defeats was the result of the main team resting, barely The two games of 2/16 and 3/10 are of reference value, because the Warriors only have few Green and Iguodala in these two games, and the gold nugget is Murray and MPJ who will not return except 80%.

2/16 is the game in which the Warriors were reversed by the gold nuggets at the end of the fourth quarter. It is worth noting that the gold nuggets used the hacking tactics against Looney at the critical moment of the fourth quarter to make the gold nuggets successfully reversed, and 3/10 was the Warriors in the fourth quarter. It was worth noting that Looney suppressed Jokic’s score, allowing him to make 9 of 21 shots and 0 of 8 three-pointers. In addition, the Warriors started a 3-shooter lineup at the last minute. Pick & pop, allowing the Warriors to reverse the game.

From Gold Nugget’s hacking tactics to Warriors’ Pick&Pop tactics at critical moments, the two teams can be said to have shown some of their cards in the regular season ahead of time, but the Warriors still have the advantage in overall combat power. After all, Green has returned to the team, and Gold Nugget has It is rumored that Murray and MPJ will most likely not be able to return in the playoffs this year, and the battle strength will rise and it will not be difficult to imagine who has the upper hand in the series. After MPJ ​​was reimbursed, the only players in the Golden Nugget who could be regarded as flanking strikers were Gordon and Barton. Others such as Morris, Rivers, Hyland, and Forbes were all short and thin backcourts. Jokic in the inside line has to let these defenders with shooting range but less than the top defense ability to carry the defense, and also have to add Gordon and Barton who have a general defensive concept of the team, so the depth of the lineup is not deep and the adjustment is not large. Gold Nugget can only focus on the extreme line of strengthening offense and sacrificing defense, which is why Gold Nugget has the third-highest offensive efficiency in the league in the past 15 games, while the defensive efficiency is the 26th in the league.

battle key

The defense is not good this season, and at the same time, it lacks the gold nugget defense line of the flank line. It is initially estimated that it cannot suppress the Warriors’ offense. Therefore, the key to the series is how the Warriors should defend the gold nugget offensive system with Jokic as the core. In the last match of the season ( 3/10), the Warriors adjusted their defensive strategy, no longer over-assisted or double-teamed Jokic, but used Looney to defend alone, and blocked the passing routes of Jokic and his teammates through other players, not giving too much cut-in and Opportunities in the perimeter gap, indirectly forcing the gold nuggets backcourt to be handed over by thugs or holding the ball, or Jokic’s singles, of course, this is not to underestimate the gold nugget’s backcourt, but compared to the backcourt with Murray in charge, only Morris and Hyland are in the same league. It’s still a lot easier to deal with in the backcourt, let alone facing the Warriors defense line where Green and Iguodala have both returned.

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To put it simply, as long as the Warriors focus on blocking other players’ scores like the 3/10 game, it will be harmless even if they can’t defend Jokic, and this season, Jokic has happened 11 times under Looney’s matchup defense. Turnovers, 23 of 41 shots. Although the shooting percentage is 56.1%, it is still lower than Jokic’s 58.3% this season. Last year, Looney defended Jokic with few possessions, but the results were quite good, only 5 of 14 shots. That’s all, although the Warriors may emphasize offensive space, so Looney won’t have much playing time, but the Warriors still have Green who can jump out to defend. Although there is no matchup data this season, according to last season’s matchup, Green Still getting him close to the rim and forcing him to hit mid-range is a bit similar to Ayton’s, so it wouldn’t be too bad without Looney.

In view of this, whether it is the depth of the lineup, the experience of the competition and the health of the lineup, the Warriors have the advantage. Therefore, as long as the Warriors maintain normal offensive and defensive standards and remain healthy, and Curry can return on time, it is not a problem to win the gold nugget in the first round. It’s just that I don’t dare to underestimate the explosive scoring power of the Golden Nugget and Jokic’s MVP power, so I conservatively estimate that the Warriors won the Golden Nugget 4-2.

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