In the pre-war analysis article before the start of the playoffs, the title I wrote for the Warriors was [After two years, the second round of the Western Conference Finals], it was originally expected to beat the Grizzlies over the gold nugget. It can compete with the leading Suns in the West, but the plot is out of the script, and it is the Dallas Mavericks who stand in front of the championship game…
In the analysis article before the playoffs started, the title I wrote for the Warriors was [After two years of default, the second round of the Western Conference finals], it was originally expected to beat the Grizzlies through the gold nugget. The leading sun in the Western District, but the plot has escaped the script, and the Dallas Mavericks (hereinafter referred to as the Mavericks) are actually standing in front of the championship game. Although it is not the same as expected, the Mavericks are no strangers to the Warriors’ style of play. The offense is dominated by three ball-handers, and then the ball-handling and singles are the core, supplemented by a flank. The shooter’s three-point sea and the leader of the lineup have only one pie-eating penalty area player.
Although the offensive system is somewhat similar, the overall details and coaching are different. Although the Mavericks’ defense is mainly based on switching and rotation, there is no set defensive strategy. Instead, it will be adjusted according to the opponent’s offensive characteristics. , the core is still the defensive strategy and response of the coaching team, coupled with the mobility of many flanking lines, the most outstanding of which is peripheral defense. From the first round of the series, it can be found that the original three-point field in the league exceeded 40 times. The Jazz who shot is only left with an average of 29.8 times per game, and you can know that the Mavericks are a team that is quite good at defending the perimeter.
The Mavericks coaching team headed by Kidd is a fast-paced and bold coaching style, as evidenced by the use of Ntilikina and the abandonment of Green in the second round, and the constant changes in the rotation time of the three major seniors. Coincidentally, the Warriors’ coaching team headed by Kerr also has a changeable coaching style, and the Warriors’ unique core configuration, 2 top off-ball running shooters and 1 leading pass forward, even if It has been 8 years since this year, and it still shows the strong strength of being able to dominate one side, not to mention that it has evolved into a 3-shooter this year, which brings more changes to the Warriors’ offense. From this, it can be seen that this year’s Western Championship will be a fierce battle with ever-changing situations, from the battle of players on the field to the confrontation of the coaching team.
How should the Warriors attack the Mavericks defense?
As mentioned above, the Mavericks’ defense is based on switching and rotation. When facing the Jazz in the first round, it is mainly switching. Even when the Jazz has a long man Gobert, they still boldly take the switch, because the Jazz’s backcourt simply does not. Actively looking for Gobert’s misplaced scoring opportunities in the penalty area, instead, he believed in his own shooting touch, and finally won the Jazz lightly when Doncic missed 3 games.
It’s just that when facing the Suns with Ayton, a long man who can be inside and out and is good at eating cakes, the Mavericks rarely switch defenses directly. Instead, when facing the Suns’ double guards, they will adopt a defensive strategy similar to ice. , let the defender with the ball go Over, the defender with the ball will directly step on the cutting movement of the ball holder, and supplemented by the occasional double-team, so that the two Suns have no good shot space, forcing them to hand in the high position. The ball was passed to Rollman, and they also saw that the Suns’ striker had the ability to face the frame and setter skills, but it was definitely not superior. In addition, the Mavericks’ second- and third-line defense rotation speed was fast, so they successfully blocked the Suns. Lots of outside shots.
Under the Mavericks’ changeable defensive strategy, the Warriors have at least one advantage over the Suns and Jazz, that is, the Warriors’ offensive system does not have a traditional center, which also means that the Warriors can play a 5-out offensive formation. , so as to open up the offensive space. In other words, if the Mavericks meet the Warriors P&R at a high position or the Screen needs to switch directly, the Warriors can now run short shifts, fake screens, reverse air runs, back cuts, Backscreen and other empty runs. Skills to sneak into the restricted area to crack the switching strategy, plus the Mavericks restricted area is not as tall and strong as the Grizzlies, as long as the only long person on the court is pulled to a high position, the third-line defender will not have the ability to protect the rim , It is therefore predictable that the Warriors will get a lot of empty cut scoring opportunities in this series.
However, if the Warriors want to win the series, they can’t just cut through the air, but also have to find a way to set off the signature three-point wave. There are two methods. Find a shot when the opponent’s defense is not in place. The second is to use a variety of positions such as Flare Screen in half-court battles to create perimeter shooting opportunities, which may be faced with the main defense switching and fast rotation. The Mavericks will be difficult to execute, but this must extend the offensive methods I mentioned above, such as 5-out, short picks and false screens, so as to slide down the restricted area to catch the ball to attract the attention of the defense, and then pass it to the shooter on the perimeter. One of the ways to open firepower from outside.
In addition, the Mavericks rarely really set up a five-small lineup, but mostly played with a large-four small lineup for most of the time, and the long-term high probability will be Kleber or Powell, although their lateral movement is more than the long-term. It’s fairly fast inside, but it’s still a target for Curry and Poole, who are self-propelled guns. Even the three major Mavericks ball handlers with more ordinary single defense conditions or skills are also targets that the Warriors can try to attack.
The regular-season matches between the two sides are of little reference value. The Warriors have missed three games with Draymond Green due to injury. One of them is the absence of the best interior defender in the team, and the other is the short pick or pick just mentioned. False screens have always been Green’s specialty, so the Western Championship Series will be a whole new battlefield different from the regular season.
But in the regular season, there are still some worthy reference. In the regular season, the Mavericks almost all switch or pinch Curry directly, and do not give any chance to move. The most impressive thing is 3/3 games, where Curry played the fourth quarter. , the number of shots was zero. What is interesting is that the Warriors did not have a chance to attack in this quarter. Instead, they scored 13 points in a single quarter with Moody, who kept getting a gap, and bit the Mavericks until the last moment. It can be seen that even without Green, the Warriors There is still a way to score points with Curry being double-teamed, not to mention that the current Warriors are not only Green but also a resurgent Thompson.
Although the Mavericks have Finney-Smith and Bullock, two flanking forwards with good mobility to sit on the perimeter defense line, but the defense, stature, and skills of the three ball handlers are not at the top level. Can they really fully suppress all kinds of passing and cutting tactics? , The Warriors who walk empty-handed must also draw a question mark, so as long as the Warriors don’t feel as strong as the second round, the Warriors’ offense will not fall in front of the Mavericks defense.
How should the Warriors defend the three arrows of the Mavericks?
The top three with the highest frequency of singles in the playoffs this year are Harden (40%), Dinwiddle (35%) and Doncic (29.6%). Name, it can be seen that the offensive system of the Mavericks revolves around the above three ball handlers, and then performs singles or pick-and-rolls in the 5out position, so as to score or score after breakthrough as the main offensive method, of which Doncic is the most Threatening, in addition to the singles skills with no weaknesses, the title of the king of decision-making is not a casual name. Accurate and fast finding the gap of the perimeter shooter is his specialty. The second ball carrier Brunson’s perimeter is less threatening. , but he is good at mid-distance emergency stops and breaking through the penalty area, and also has a certain degree of passing vision. The third ball handler is Dinwiddie, who just joined this season. As an offense that connects Doncic and Brunson when he is resting, he is not very stable, but as long as As soon as you feel it, it will be the level of burning the house. The sun of Game6 and Game7 is a case of fire in the whole family.
The Mavericks with 3 single players are different from the Nuggets and Grizzlies who have single-point breakthroughs. Curry, Poole, Looney and even Porter, who are mainly rotated by the Warriors, will be the targets of the Mavericks. Looney and Porter can at least serve as third-line coordinators. Defenders, but Curry and Poole can’t, so it can be assumed that the two of them can’t stay on the court together for a long time, which also makes the Warriors’ five-small lineup not a closed lineup. It is the most reasonable to replace Porter with the other four talents. choose. But even with the best lineup of Curry/Thompson/Wiggins/Green/Porter, the Mavericks will still do their best to get rid of Wiggins or Thompson’s one-on-one defense, catch Curry out and manage, 3/3 against the Mavericks in the regular season. In the fourth quarter, the Warriors could still score a lot when Curry was pinched, but in the end they lost to the Mavericks. The reason was that Curry kept getting caught by Doncic to score in singles.
The defensive strategy that the Warriors can adopt is nothing more than to switch defenses in advance or Show and other strategies that can avoid Curry being called. Early switching is bound to be the first choice. Let Curry and Green or Thompson and others switch defenses in advance to avoid being brought to a high position to be called. However, switching defenses in advance requires communication and timing. If there is no way to switch defenses in advance, the Warriors will have to perform a Show to avoid them. Even Ice, Blitz and other more active defensive strategies force Doncic to hand over the ball, and the Warriors will have to rely on the subsequent defense. Rotation speed, but watching the Mavericks game shows that they are already familiar with how to pass the ball to the best shot position. Therefore, facing the Mavericks, not only the Warriors’ rotation defense is tested, but also the Mavericks’ flank perimeter. malfunction.
But even if the defensive rotation of the Warriors’ small-ball lineup is faster than that of the Jazz and Suns with traditional centers, according to the Mavericks in the first two rounds of the playoffs, they averaged 15.5 three-pointers per game and 40.3% shooting from the perimeter. It seems that it is difficult to change the feel in a few days. Fortunately, for the warriors who have practiced many kinds of defensive strategies this season, there is still a 1-2-2 zone to try. The 1-2-2 zone was originally used to deal with the strong For a team with a shooter outside the ball-holding point, as long as the five players on the field communicate and execute Closeout, it is not impossible to defend the Mavericks’ 5out.
But looking at four quarters and 48 minutes, the Warriors are bound to have easy-to-manage players such as Curry, Poole, and Looney, so it is unrealistic to expect the Warriors to use a defensive strategy to suppress the Mavericks. In the winning series, the team who has a high degree of perimeter grasp and who can crack the opponent’s defense more thoroughly will be able to advance to the championship game.
Warriors’ lineup
The starting lineup may be paired with Looney. After all, the Mavericks are accustomed to releasing Powell first, and the series between Looney and Powell should be a bound combination. With Powell, Looney is more suitable. In addition, because of the poor defense, Poole and Curry will be on the court at the same time, which is equivalent to giving the Mavericks many singles opportunities. Therefore, I don’t think the Three Waves lineup can play more in this series, and can even be discarded depending on the situation. Closing lineup I still support the previous view, Curry/Thompson/Wiggins/Green/Porter, this will be the most closed lineup the Warriors can play at this stage, unless Payton and Iguodala can return, then it will be another matter.
Bjelica may continue to be discarded. Although he has a certain vision of the ball and the concept of short picks, his speed is not fast enough. Facing the Mavericks defense line with fast rotation speed, he may not play a big role, let alone Said the defense would be hit.
As for whether the double rookie can be used, if you still remember that the fans in the fourth quarter of the 3/3 regular season should choose to support, when Curry was pinched, he relied on Moody and Kuminga to constantly seize the gap, but this is the postseason. In the game, as long as you go up and commit silly 3 minutes, there may be a 10-point gap. Therefore, Moody should not be activated, and Kuminga is likely to be put into the rotation again because of the advantage of being able to defend and break through the penalty area, but it will definitely not be the starting lineup that mainly focuses on the passing and cutting system. , appear in the second team that needs to show offense.
As for Lee, it’s just a matter of chance. His performance in the last round of the Grizzlies series was barely passable. JTA is a player who I think can be reactivated in this series. False screens and short picks are also the ones he stole from Green last season. It’s a good skill, and it’s not bad solo defense, maybe when Looney is cut out, he will get some playing time.
in conclusion
There is no bad team that can go to the Western Championship, especially the Mavericks’ offensive type is the type that the Warriors have a relatively headache for, so the gap between the players of the two teams is really not big, and it can even be said that the outside touch determines everything, not to mention the two sides. The coaching team is a battle of wits, so I think that the Western Championship will be guaranteed at least 6 games at the bottom and 7 games with a high probability. As for who can win, I will choose the more experienced Warriors who are different in home and away teams.
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