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2022 NBA Championship Analysis Golden State Warriors - The Final Test of Return to Glory

The final test of returning to glory

Celtic’s defense is undoubtedly the nemesis of the Warriors, but for Celtic, the Warriors’ defense will be a bigger test than the Heat 

The 2022 NBA championship combination is between the Golden State Warriors and the Boston Celtics. The last time the two teams faced off in the championship game was 58 years ago in 1964. At that time, the San Francisco Warriors, led by Chamberlain, lost 1-4 to Bill. Russell’s Celtics, 58 years later the Warriors are back with Otto Porter Jr. for revenge, don’t know how it will end, but at least it’s a brand new combination for current NBA fans. Because it is a set of highly variable battle combinations, pre-battle analysis is of little significance, so in this article, I will briefly focus on two major themes.

[How should the Warriors defend the Celtics?]

Before talking about how to defend, you must first understand Celtic’s offensive style. To my surprise, Celtic’s tactical settings have a lot of screens and off ball movements, such as the first quarter of a championship match. In an offensive round, Tatum ran directly to the Stagger screen and made three-pointers, which means that Tatum is a player who can run without the ball. This is also the biggest difference between him and Doncic. Perhaps in terms of singles skills, the former is not as good as the latter. , But if you want to talk about who has more offensive style, it is definitely Tatum. This is also the offensive core that the Warriors have not encountered in the first three rounds. Jokic’s low-post attack and scoring are very strong, Morant’s singles breakthrough is very powerful, Doncic’s singles and conduction are basically the same. Absolutely, but their team won’t allow them to run off the ball.

Compared with the Lone Ranger’s insistence on dislocation singles as a starting-hand offensive system, Celtic’s offense obviously has more aspects, not to mention the double-J can play without the ball, which is undoubtedly another big test for the Warriors’ defense. . But fortunately, offscreen is not Celtic’s strong point. It doesn’t appear many times in a single game. It only appears when the coaching team specially sets it up or when Horford supports the ball in the high position and holds the ball in the low position. Brown and Smart first bypass the Screen to the top of the arc to catch the ball, then hold the ball for a pick-and-roll shot, or an offensive mode that points the ball to the perimeter shooter, so I really want to say which system the Celtics’ offense is particularly biased towards. It’s a good thing and a bad thing. The good thing is that San Shao’s offensive methods are diversified. They can hold the ball, can have the ball without the ball, and have passing vision. But the bad thing is that once the three of them have a poor offensive feel or If the shot selection is not good, the Celtics’ offense will crash. In the championship game where the two sides are close in strength, as long as the two sides are down for 3 to 5 minutes, there will be a critical period that is enough to decide the outcome, let alone the opponent is the Golden State Warriors. .

That being said, in fact, Celtic’s offense is not easy to deal with. The point of being difficult to defend is not because of Celtic’s offensive system, but the single function of Double J is too good, and it is definitely not something that ordinary flanks can limit. , especially Tatum’s Pullup Jump shot, which hit 49.3% in the playoffs and 44.2% on 3-pointers. This is quite a terrible result. Considering his height, he can pull up and shoot directly, even Wiggins There is no limited interference. In other words, those who can limit them the most should have their own feel, but fortunately, rotation players such as Smart, Horford, White, and GW are not too difficult to deal with. Although Smart can hold and divide the ball, his skills are not special. Skilled, not to mention his height is still a flaw, his overall hit rate in the Eastern Championship is only 36%, and the outside C&S hit rate due to double-J being double-teamed is only 23.3% (1.4/6), which is why The reason why the Heat defending Smart will choose to release him, and go to double-J, is the same reason that White’s shooting is also not threatening. Although he has a high degree of perimeter grasp in the late stage of the Eastern Championship, he is not good for this season’s Warriors. It is said that Bacheng, the unstable outside shooter, chooses to release the shot and let the opponent move closer to the strong side to assist in defense. After the empty White and Smart receive the pass, they will close out and go back. This is not to underestimate them. , but the Warriors’ trade-off to maximize defensive efficiency.

It is worth noting that White occasionally plays short picks at high positions to help the ball-handler. With a good setter vision, he creates an attacking situation of more and less play. Although Horford and GW’s perimeter C&S are relatively stable, their output is not high. It’s not big, and it’s not enough to determine the direction of the series. It’s just that Horford should pay special attention to the movement of the double-J when he is supporting or scoring the ball in the low post. Especially Tatum, he can not only run around the screen, but also use himself as a bunker. After Pop out to the outside shot.

Having said so much, what the Warriors should pay attention to in Celtic offense is the double-J body, Horford’s support, White’s setter and Smart’s ball-holding blocking and splitting. Among them, Tatum is the most troublesome. Knowing that Tatum will make Wiggins the main defense, and is the only player in the Warriors who can keep up with physical conditions, Celtic will definitely take Wiggins away from Tatum as much as possible, and replace them with Curry and Poole. A good RBI backcourt player, but Celtic’s offense has never revolved around Tatum or Brown, so roll call tactics don’t appear too often. Even if they did, the Warriors probably wouldn’t use Show&recover to avoid them, but instead The follow-up defense of the strong side is good. If the pass is lost, it will be good to quickly turn around and make up.

In addition, the various regional defenses that the Warriors are good at this season should also come in handy in the championship, especially the 3-2 zone, the effect will be even better than in the Western Championship. After all, the Celtics do not have the king of decision-making, the Warriors It can also interfere with outside shots through the 3 in the front row, and the 2 in the back row can prevent the breakthrough of double-J, and the double-J is not particularly skilled in dribbling and handling the ball. In the Eastern Championship, there are 8 mistakes per game. Second, this will be an opportunity for the Warriors to use counter-attacks to find rhythm.

The Warriors’ defense is not worse than the Heat, or even better. It can be seen that Butler, who has burned himself on the offensive end, has been unable to inject 100% of his physical strength on the defensive end at the end of the series. For a while, the breakthrough of the ball can’t keep up, and this does not happen to Wiggins, who is not the core of the offense, and the Warriors’ defensive strategy has always been quite capable this season, and finally add Celtic’s The seven-man rotation stamina bar is always limited, so it is reasonable to think that the Warriors can do more to limit the Celtics’ offense than the Heat.

As mentioned at the beginning, the Celtics’ offense is another test for the Warriors’ defense, but for the Celtics, the Warriors’ defense will be a bigger test than the Heat. Of course, basketball games are not on paper. If Smart and White and other backcourt players suddenly hit all the shots on the outside, and Kobe’s upper body in double-J games, it would be beyond the scope of the above discussion.

[How should the Warriors break through the Celtics’ defense? 】

As we all know, what the Warriors fear most is the sea of ​​flanks that can switch defenses indefinitely, but now there are few teams that can really switch all switches like the Rockets and Warriors in the past, even Celti who can do it. Nor did it. When the two sides played against each other in the regular season, Celtic still chose to drop and retreat for the Warriors’ pick-and-roll or screen on the perimeter, and let the defender quickly revolve the screen to interfere with the shot. Continue to adopt a passive defensive strategy in the championship game. 87% of the three shooters of the Warriors will shoot directly after the first shot, so it is reasonable to suspect that in the championship game, Celtic will switch to unconditional defense instead of giving The Warriors’ shooter group has an easy shot.

In addition to the flank sea who can switch indefinitely, Robert Williams of the Celtics is also a broom-type long man that the Warriors are not good at dealing with. Just like Jackson who met the Grizzlies in the second round, any breakthroughs and air cuts will be effectively interfered by them or It’s a direct shot to cover the pot, and the Celtics, like the Grizzlies, will switch early in order to keep Williams in the weak-side corner to prevent him from being brought up and away from the penalty area.

However, this move is a bit conflicting with the indiscriminate switching mentioned above, so there are several defensive strategies to analyze at this time. First, if Celtic chooses to switch indiscriminately, the Warriors will reduce many outside shots. Opportunities, you can only use 5-out mutual screening to pull Celtic’s defense, and keep Celtic’s long man away from the penalty area as much as possible, creating more empty cuts or scoring opportunities in the penalty area; second, plug Ertik chooses to drop and retreat, especially Williams’ normal retreat to the penalty area, and this move is equivalent to eliminating the Warriors’ chances of cutting and scoring in the penalty area, and the picture of the Warriors winning by scoring in the penalty area in the Western Championship will also disappear. Existing, but on the contrary, there will also be a lot of outside shot opportunities; third, let players other than Williams switch defense directly, thereby limiting most of the Warriors’ outside shot opportunities, while taking into account the defense of the penalty area, using this defensive strategy In theory, the meeting covers everything, but it also tests the players’ communication and concentration. After all, it is necessary to cooperate with Williams’ early defense, and at the same time to run directly with other teammates. This is for the Warriors who have countless pick-and-rolls and screens in a single offensive round. , it is likely to be a counter-effect, not to mention that the Warriors can directly play split action, stagger screen, or even a simple hand-off on Williams’ side, which can easily create outside shots.

From the perspective of Warriors fans, the first strategy is definitely the best way to limit the Warriors’ offense. After all, there is still some gap between the two sides. Even if the elders are pulled to the periphery, whether it is Tatum or Brown in the weak side bottom corner, The ability to protect the frame is at an upper-middle level, and it will not allow the Warriors to easily score in the penalty area. In addition to the above situation, Celtic may have Williams play a fake start due to the influence of the formation or injury, and normally maintain the five-line lineup with Horford as the center. If this happens, Celtic should The first option will be chosen, and the defense will be switched indiscriminately.

To sum up, Celtic’s defense is undoubtedly the nemesis of the Warriors, but all-switch pays great attention to the tacit understanding and constant concentration among teammates. In addition, the Warriors have experienced indiscriminate switching during the Rockets period. Very similar, but not inexperienced, so the Warriors still have a chance to break through.

The above is a hypothetical analysis of the normal half-court positional battle, but basketball is round, and many variables must be considered, such as the fast break after a mistake, the defensive counterattack after a defensive rebound, and the second attack of an offensive rebound. The key factors that determine the outcome, and these are the Celtics’ projects that are better than the Mavericks, so it is conceivable that this will be a more intense series than the Western Championship.

According to the current news, the Warriors’ Porter, Payton and Iguodala can all return to the court, so the Warriors may be transferred out of the rotation early in the series, maintaining a nine-player rotation (Curry, Thompson, Green, Wiggins, Looney) , Poole, Porter, GP2, Iguodala), the only variable should be Bjelica, who has re-played the trust value in the Western Championship, especially in the face of Celtic, who does not have a very fast top-level backcourt, has an outside line and can make a breakthrough Bjelica, who can also support, should get some of Looney’s playing time.

Compared with the Celtics, the Warriors still have more other advantages. In addition to the home advantage with a very high win rate this season, there is a deeper and more flexible lineup configuration, and even the health is better than the Celtics. , so when both offensive ends may face new tests, I think the Warriors still have a better chance of reaching the last team.

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