2022 NBA Playoffs Second Round Analysis Miami Heat

The first round passed easily as expected, but the Heat injured veteran Kyle Lowry and flank Jimmy Butler took a precautionary truce, making the second round a few variables.

The first round went through easily as expected, but the Heat injured veteran Kyle Lowry and flank Jimmy Butler took a precautionary truce, which made some variables in the second round.

Looking back at the Heat-Eagle series, it can be seen that the Heat’s strict precautions played a role, and Trae Young, who almost killed the last season’s playoffs and played a career-best result in this season’s regular season: Trae Young has almost become so complete that he can’t play. . Young made 22 goals in five games but made 30 turnovers, averaging 15 points, 6 assists and 6 turnovers per game, and his three-point shooting rate was only 18%; three of the four lowest points this season occurred in this series, and there was no score in the playoffs last season. Single digits at a time, this series happened twice.

The Eagles used a lot of pick-and-rolls in the regular season, ranking second in the league in overall offensive efficiency and top three in overall pick-and-roll efficiency. The Heat used Young’s defense switch, help defense and continuous physical collision, and would rather sacrifice the bottom line than let Young have a chance to cut in, effectively limiting the Eagles’ housekeeping skills. Young was suppressed and the second attacker was inconsistent. Bogdan Bogdanović was only allowed to miss the last game. Kevin Huerter shot cold shots and limited the Heat’s aggressive defense, and the whole team played in the backcourt.

After Young used the screen, the picture of the small flip shot disappeared, and the number of fouls dropped sharply. Instead, the turnover increased sharply, and the Eagles team’s pick-and-roll efficiency fell to the bottom. Without the pick-and-roll, the core axis of the offense, the Eagles were forced to use the flank De’Andre Hunter and the center forward Danilo Gallinari a lot. Only a single point attack could not connect the fire net; the main players John Collins and Clint Capela were injured. In his body, Onyeka Okongwu’s experience and attacking methods are not enough, and the Eagles are not wronged when they are suppressed in the backcourt.

The Heat hit a sore spot with the Hawks’ targeted deployment. Once the soul of Young was trapped to death, the defense was constantly on the field and became a burden. Head coach Nate McMillan is not without adjustment, but the cards in his hand are limited, and he has not found an effective way to deal with it before the end of the series, allowing the Heat to pass the game calmly even with two less generals.

Injuries are still the biggest variable. Butler missed 25 games in the regular season with a record of 15 wins and 10 losses, but it was the first time he was exempt because of a high knee. Butler didn’t seem to have any problems with the fourth game of the Eagles series. There was no collision on the court and he did not go to the rest room for treatment. He didn’t go out until the victory in the fourth quarter. There is no accident that the second round will see him return in the first game. The truce is only prudent.

Another wounded soldier, Lowry, is more confused because the injured part is the hamstring. Usually this kind of injury needs more than two weeks of rest, and it is very easy to relapse if it is not completely cured. Of course, there are examples like Devin Booker returning to the team quickly. Last season, James Harden returned quickly, but then Harden played with almost one foot, and his athletic ability declined significantly. Considering that Lowry is 36 years old and needs more time to recover, the Heat should continue to observe Lowry’s condition in the first two games and will not rashly let him play.

Panthers Victor Oladipo’s last two games of the first round proved worth playing. Although the explosiveness is not as good as before the injury, the shooting situation is always ups and downs, and it is easy for the ball to stagnate when attacking. However, Oladipo’s defense and judgment ability are still there. He can still break through and cut in one-on-one, and his presence on the court still plays a certain role. For Oladipo to play, he needs to have the ball and enough outside shooters to open up space. Now the Heat have just enough to meet the needs. Whether or not Lowry returns, they should still see Oladipo on the court.

Shooter Max Strus is expected to continue to start, and his 35.6% three-point shooting in the first round is a passing margin. His physique and athleticism are good, and the defensive end is slightly slower but will not be beaten by the target, allowing the Heat to have more room for scheduling. Another top starter, Gabe Vincent, is also a strong and solid player, and his defense is more of a housekeeper. The main problem is that the attack fluctuates too much, but the perimeter still maintains a certain level.

The worst Heat player in the first round should be Tyler Herro. Herro should be the best sixth man by averaging more than 20 points per game in the regular season, but his shooting performance against the Hawks is very poor. The overall shooting rate is less than 40%, the three-point shooting rate is only 17.9%, and there are a lot of frame errors.

The 76ers with a big center in the lineup are bound to use a lot of fallback defense. At this time, whether Herro can punish the opponent from the mid-range is very important. The data shows that Herro still has a certain degree of accuracy in the middle distance. The biggest problem is that the grasp is extremely poor and the three-point accuracy is completely lost after the cut. The Heat’s offense is average, which means that Herro’s fire support is indispensable for winning.

The last time the Heat and 76ers met in the playoffs was in 2018, when the third-seeded 76ers paid for the sixth-seeded Heat in five games. This time it became the Heat because the high-ranked seeds held home-court advantage, and the two teams met with two wins and two losses in the regular season. However, after the trade deadline, the 76ers guard James Harden did not play in the two games, and center Joel Embiid only played one game, so the reference value is very limited.

In the first round, it can be found that Harden has almost no explosiveness at all, even if he can’t pass the flanks of the Tyrannosaurus, and occasionally he can’t eat the 6-1 guard Malachi Flynn when he switches defenses. His cuts are only to create a physical collision, or to wait for the opponent to shrink the defense and pass the ball.

The 19 points per game and the 40.2% shooting percentage are the low points since Harden became famous in the Rockets. Fortunately, he averaged 10.2 assists per game to support the scene. The Heat have a lot of available soldiers in the backcourt. The original defensive weakness, Duncan Robinson, is less important and playing time is reduced. The weaker defensive player is only Herro. Looking at the tragic situation of Harden in the first round, I personally think that even if he encounters Herro’s defense, it should not be much worse. Switching to the wing or the big man is also good defense, only Dewayne Dedmon is slower, Harden is difficult to take too much advantage.

The 76ers ace center Embiid is a key defensive target for the Heat. He played 24 points and 14 rebounds three times this season. The data is quite ordinary. The key point is that the shooting percentage is only 42%. One-on-one The Heat do not have a suitable character to carry Embiid. Although the starting center Bam Adebayo has good athleticism, he is not high enough. Fortunately, the Heat team’s defense rotation is fast, and the help defense or attack is not soft. It can be mixed at any time with man-marking and area. Defensive strategy, Embiid can’t ask for anything in the box.

Now it is reported that Embiid has no timetable for his return due to a fracture of his right orbit and a mild concussion, and he can only play after passing the relevant league tests for concussions. I wish to see him return as soon as possible.

The 76ers’ double star has a super strong ability to create fouls. It just happened that the Heat had the problem of being too aggressive and too early to let the opponent enter the penalty in the first round. The 76ers should be able to gain some advantages. On the whole, with the defensive intensity shown by the Heat, the 76ers’ double star is not easy to obtain explosive data. The outcome may depend on guard Tyrese Maxey, flank Tobias Harris and the team’s three-point shooting situation.

In addition to Embiid’s injury, Butler’s knee, Lowry’s hamstring, and other potential injuries, the most important thing is probably the coach’s fighting style.

Doc Rivers and Erik Spoelstra, who were also selected as the 15 greatest coaches in NBA history, have no doubt that Spoelstra has the upper hand in terms of past performance and recent evaluations. Rivers has lost seven of its last nine shutout battles, the most in a coaching career with 31 shutout defeats. Last season, the Eastern Division had a 2-1 lead in the second round, and finally lost to the Eagles.

The Rivers are well known for screwing up their 3-1 lead three times, and they responded in an interview with ESPN a few days ago:

The Orlando Magic I took in 2003 was the No. 8 seed, and no one believed the Magic could compete with the Pistons. If you went back and looked at that list, I bet you looked at the list and said: What an amazing coaching job.

I coached the Clippers against the Rockets in 2015, and Chris Paul didn’t play the first two games, and the whole series was on one leg, and then we didn’t have home-court advantage.

Playing the nuggets in 2020, for me, we screwed up. But that’s in the bubble, where anything can happen, and there’s no such thing as a home court, and under normal circumstances Game 7 would be in Los Angeles.

I would say some of it is my responsibility, but some of it is something that happens.

It’s unfair to put the absolute advantage of losing 3-1 on the coach, but on the other hand, the coach is not completely irresponsible. Moreover, in the past, we have not missed the scenes of Rivers being helpless at critical moments. If the star himself cannot make a bloody path, it is not easy for the Rivers team to persist in the tug of war.

Spoelstra is much better in comparison. Although he was fooled by the Bucks in the playoffs last season and quarreled directly with the star Butler on the sidelines this season, it did not damage his high evaluation overall. Spoelstra, who had the courage to try, used a lineup without a center in the first round, and also tried the type of three guards present at the same time. Although the Heat do not have top talent, but the players are functional, which just gives Spoelstra room to deploy different lineups.

Based on the current situation of the two sides, the past performance of the coach, the depth of the overall lineup, and the Heat’s first round of early settlement of the Eagles and rested for six days, it is a reasonable prediction for the Eastern Division leader to pass 4-2.

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